Friday, March 6, 2015

Just The Facts 2015: CAAT rematches of regular season finales

Can The Terminator get the real Guns N' Roses back together?

The Flying Dutchmen will see a familiar foe Saturday, when they open CAA Tournament play against James Madison at 2:30 PM. The Dutchmen’s regular season ended last Saturday with an 82-73 loss to the Dukes.

So that, of course, got me thinking not only about how a team fares when facing in the tournament an opponent that swept it during the season, but how teams fare when playing each other in the CAA regular season finale and then again in the first game of the CAA Tournament.

Welp, more bad news for the Dutchmen: There have been 13 such rematches in CAA history, and the team that won the regular season finale won the tourney game 10 times. James Madison and Hofstra have accounted for half of those victories: The Dukes swept the regular season finale and CAA Tournament opener three times (1992, 1993 and 2013) while the Dutchmen did it in 2009 and 2010.

Hofstra and James Madison have also been involved in the three times a team lost the finale but won the CAA Tournament rematch. The Dutchmen ended the 2001-02 season by losing to Towson before beating the Tigers in the tournament. James Madison knocked off Drexel in 2010 and was victimized in the tournament by Navy after beating the Midshipmen in the regular season finale way back in 1991.

So as you can see, this has only further muddied the already-confusing waters. Success! Below is the complete list of regular season sweeps and tourney rematches (or re-rematches).

George Mason vs. UNC Wilmington
FINALE: George Mason 99, UNC Wilmington 88
TOURNEY: George Mason 70, UNC Wilmington 67

James Madison vs. Navy
FINALE: James Madison 106, Navy 86
TOURNEY: Navy 85, James Madison 82***

James Madison vs. William & Mary
FINALE: James Madison 98, William & Mary 77
TOURNEY: James Madison 77, William & Mary 53

James Madison vs. George Mason
FINALE: James Madison 75, George Mason 59
TOURNEY: James Madison 60, George Mason 49

Old Dominion vs. William & Mary
FINALE: Old Dominion 94, William & Mary 70
TOURNEY: Old Dominion 83, William & Mary 58

Towson vs. Hofstra
FINALE: Towson 61, Hofstra 60
TOURNEY: Hofstra 72, Towson 52

VCU vs. William & Mary
FINALE: VCU 77, William & Mary 59
TOURNEY: VCU 62, William & Mary 59

Hofstra vs. UNC Wilmington
FINALE: Hofstra 88, UNC Wilmington 81
TOURNEY: Hofstra 79, UNC Wilmington 66

Hofstra vs. Georgia State
FINALE: Hofstra 87, Georgia State 74
TOURNEY: Hofstra 68, Georgia State 67

James Madison vs. Drexel
FINALE: Drexel 67, James Madison 64
TOURNEY: James Madison 77, Drexel 65

Drexel vs. Towson
FINALE: Drexel 66, Towson 63
TOURNEY: Drexel 75, Towson 69

James Madison vs. William & Mary
FINALE: James Madison 69, William & Mary 67
TOURNEY: James Madison 72, William & Mary 67

Northeastern vs. Drexel
FINALE: Northeastern 54, Drexel 52
TOURNEY: Northeastern 90, Drexel 81

***Navy played non-conference foe Army in its regular season finale in 1990-91.

Thursday, March 5, 2015

Just The Facts 2015: Going 0-2 against a tourney foe

I saw this movie at a drive-in. GOOGLE IT DRAGONS SPEAK!

Hello and welcome to the 2015 edition of “Just The Facts,” the sorta-annual pre-CAA Tournament series in which I dispense with my usual witty verbiage (snort) and present to you the key data in a Hofstra-related topic. We’ll stick with the Terminator theme, since the Flying Dutchmen won a tourney game with it last year!

Anyway, there’s a few topics to sink our teeth into this year, so let’s get right to it. On Saturday, the Flying Dutchmen will open (but hopefully not close) CAA Tournament play against James Madison. The Dukes swept Hofstra this season, so that of course got me wondering about a familiar storyline at this time of season: How does a team fare when it’s facing a team it has already beaten twice? Or, in this case, lost to twice?

The news is not good for Hofstra. Since the CAA expanded to include the America East four in 2001-02, teams that went 0-2 in the regular season against a tournament foe have gone just 12-39 in the third game. That’s a winning percentage of just .235. Welp. The 0-2 team had lost 15 straight games in CAA Tournament play until last year’s semifinals, when William & Mary beat Towson.

Here are the results, with the 2-0 team listed first. Mostly because I’ve done this when Hofstra is the 2-0 team and I already had the data presented as such.

2014: Hofstra beats UNCW, Delaware beats Hofstra, Delaware beats Northeastern, Delaware beats W&M, Towson beats JMU, Towson loses to W&M
2013: Delaware beats Hofstra, JMU beats W&M, Northeastern beats GMU, JMU beats Delaware
2012: Delaware beats Towson
2011: Drexel beats Towson, Delaware beats Northeastern, Hofstra beats W&M
2010: Drexel loses to JMU, ODU beats Towson, ODU beats W&M
2009: Hofstra beats UNCW, VCU beats Georgia State, JMU beats W&M, Drexel loses to Towson, GMU beats Towson
2008: VCU loses to W&M, UNCW loses to GMU
2007: VCU beats Georgia State, VCU beats GMU, GMU beats JMU, ODU loses to GMU, Drexel beats Northeastern, Northeastern beats Delaware, W&M loses to Georgia State
2006: VCU beats W&M, Northeastern beats JMU, Towson loses to Georgia State, UNCW beats Delaware
2005: VCU beats Delaware, ODU beats W&M, Drexel loses to Hofstra
2004: VCU beats Towson, VCU beats ODU, GMU beats UNCW, UNCW beats JMU
2003: Mason loses to Delaware, UNCW beats Hofstra, UNCW beats Drexel, UNCW beats Delaware, JMU beats Towson
2002: VCU beats ODU, GMU loses to Hofstra, W&M loses to JMU, UNCW beats JMU

However, the news is a bit better when simply discussing Hofstra’s experience as the team that was swept during the regular season. The Dutchmen, as noted above, have accounted for two of the 12 wins by 0-2 teams and are a solid 2-3 in these tourney re-rematches since joining the CAA.

Dating back to their days in the ECC, the Dutchmen are 3-9 (.333) when facing a team in a conference tournament that swept them during the regular season. The full list:

2014: Lost to Delaware
2013: Lost to Delaware
2005: Beat Drexel
2003: Lost to UNCW
2002: Beat George Mason

1998: Lost to Delaware
1995: Lost to Drexel

1989: Lost to Bucknell
1988: Lost to Lafayette
1987: Lost to Lafayette
1986: Beat Bucknell
1985: Lost to Lehigh

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Senior Night: Moussa Kone

Moussa Kone was perfectly positioned to transfer from Hofstra following his sophomore season in 2012-13, a campaign in which the Flying Dutchmen plumbed the lowest depths in school history on and off the court before head coach Mo Cassara and the assistants who recruited Kone were fired.

Kone could have surveyed the landscape, found a program that wasn’t staring at a complete rebuild, used his redshirt season to refine a still-maturing game and emerged as a key force down low for someone in 2014-15 and 2015-16.

But the only time Kone thinks about transferring from Hofstra is when others ask him why he didn’t.

“I decided to stay and recognize that the coaching staff is one thing that I loved, but the Hofstra community is another thing that I love,” Kone said Monday, two days before his final regular season home game at Hofstra Arena. “That’s what I’ve really enjoyed about the whole situation. I just realized that this is the best place for me to stay.”

Kone was further emboldened after his first meeting with Joe Mihalich, the famous (or infamous) one in which the new coach gathered what was left of the 2012-13 team in a room in the basement of the University Club shortly before his introductory press conference on Apr. 10.

“He wanted me to realize that he wanted me to be a leader on and off the court,” Kone said. “That’s one thing that built my confidence up. I wanted to make him a happy coach, as far as making sure everything was correct, as far as being a good teammate on the floor, off the floor, encouraging my teammates and being energetic.”

Winning and retaining Mihalich’s approval off the court was no problem for Kone, whose character and gentle demeanor immediately impressed athletic department staffers upon his arrival in the fall of 2011. Kone evoked memories of Charles Jenkins by immersing himself in student activities—he is a member of the Student-Athlete Advocacy Committee—and becoming a staple at sporting events on campus.

Meeting Mihalich’s standards on the court was a bit more challenging—particularly handling the adjustment from Cassara, who relied on positive reinforcement to try and keep the undermanned Dutchmen afloat while they went 17-47 during Kone’s first two seasons, to the demanding and rarely satisfied Mihalich.

Kone has come back from a knee injury suffered in the season opener against Jacksonville to average 8.8 points and 5.7 rebounds in 16 CAA games for the Dutchmen, whose nine league wins are three fewer than Kone enjoyed in his first three seasons.

But winning and displaying consistent improvement—Kone averaged 5.6 points and 4.4 rebounds per game over his first three years—is often not enough for Mihalich.

“Sometimes he does look at me with a puzzled look, as if to say ‘Why do you want more? We’re doing pretty good right now.’ And he’s not used to that,” Mihalich said. “Like I said to Jeff Hathaway: This is how I want to be. We have 18 wins, knocking on the door of 20 wins, and we’re not happy.

“But that’s how you want to be. That’s the biggest adjustment for him, is that realization—he’s still learning that that’s how it’s supposed to be.”

Mihalich has spent plenty of time this month praise Kone instead of pushing him. Kone has scored in double digits three times in six February games and twice came within a rebound of a double-double.

Kone had the best game of his career on Feb. 15, when he scored 23 points—on 10-of-10 shooting from the field—and pulled down nine rebounds in an 81-57 rout of Drexel.

On the bus afterward, Mihalich informed Kone that he was just the seventh player in CAA history to make at least 10 field goal attempts without a miss in a single game. Among the first six: Hall of Famer David Robinson.

“In the beginning of the game, if they get me going with a couple dump-off passes and I get a couple dunks in and I get three or four layups and I’m feeling good about myself, then they’ll continue to feed me,” Kone said. “And that’s basically what happened against Drexel. They just kept feeding off me and I was just getting great looks and I just couldn’t miss, I guess.”

The February surge is nothing new for Kone: Of the 21 times he has scored at least 10 points in a game for Hofstra, eight have come in February including both his 20-point efforts. That’s a good trend for a team that will have a legitimate chance at advancing deep into the CAA Tournament for the first time in Kone’s career.

While Kone is thinking about the remaining games he has to play, he’s also begun to reflect upon the circuitous path he traveled at Hofstra and how the struggles of his first two seasons are impacting the payoff he’s enjoying as a senior.

“I had to mature from the first two years and being on a team where a lot of people probably wouldn’t have stuck it out,” Kone said. “But I was mature enough to be patient and just stay around, stick it out, just be confident in the team and in the organization. The athletic director down to the coaches and managers that we have on the team. I just respect them to the fullest.

“I just wanted to come out here and stick it out. Looking back on it, I just feel like it was a great decision that I (made). I wanted to come in here and finish up and it’s turned out pretty well for me.”

And as demanding as he could be of Kone, Mihalich will always have a soft spot for the lone Cassara-era player to complete his eligibility under the new coaching staff.

“The negative things that happened, the losing, all that stuff, and he’s really the only one that stuck around,” Mihalich said. “And now he’s here and not only is the culture different, but he’s a big part of why it is. So it’s remarkable that he’s been able to do that.”

Senior Night: Dion Nesmith

Six years, three schools and almost two degrees later, Dion Nesmith finally gets his Senior Night tonight, when the graduate senior guard will be honored prior to the Flying Dutchmen’s regular season home finale against the College of Charleston.

So what took so long? Thank the NCAA. For more reasons than one.

Nesmith originally went to Northeastern in the fall of 2009 to play football. He was redshirted as a freshman, and ended up never playing a down for the Huskies because the school dropped the program two days after the conclusion of the 2009 season.

With the understanding that he couldn’t play basketball at Northeastern, and the increasing realization he didn’t want to risk playing football for another Division I-AA program that might shutter its doors, Nesmith decided to transfer some place where he could play basketball as a true sophomore during the 2010-11 season.

Nesmith, a native of Union, N.J., went home to Monmouth. But the ever-byzantine NCAA never approved his request to play immediately, which meant he spent his sophomore year the same way he spent his freshman year: On the bench.

“The rule was if the program gets dropped, you can go right away and play that same sport again,” Nesmith said Monday afternoon. “But since I chose to play basketball, I had to sit out.”

The ruling frustrated Nesmith, but it also emboldened him.

“At the end of the day, I wanted to play more than they were going to stop me,” Nesmith said. “So there was no quit in me. I was going to play one day. I knew it was going to happen. I just had to wait my turn.”

The waiting was worth it, especially for Hofstra. Nesmith played his junior and senior seasons at Monmouth, for whom he averaged 8.4 points while starting 60 of 63 games.

After graduating with a degree in finance in the spring of 2013, Nesmith decided to cash in on his opportunity to play an extra year by transferring to Hofstra, which not only offered a master’s degree in business analytics but an immediate chance to play as many minutes as he could handle.

Nesmith was named to the all-CAA third team last year, when he averaged 13.3 points per game as the Dutchmen’s starting point guard. But his biggest victory occurred early in the season, when Hofstra applied for and received a sixth year of eligibility for Nesmith.

The NCAA helping out the little guy, and Hofstra. What were the odds?

“I never really thought it could happen, the sixth year,” Joe Mihalich said. “And then just all of a sudden one day somebody said ‘Hey you know what? This could happen.’ And it was like, wow, really? It was one of those expect the worst, hope for the best (situations). I just expected him to not be eligible and he was. So it was great.”

The extra season began with Nesmith coming off the bench thanks to the arrival of Juan’ya Green, Ameen Tanksley and Brian Bernardi, all of whom sat out last season as transfers. His post-post graduate season is ending with Nesmith back in the starting lineup and cementing himself as one of the best players on the team.

Nesmith has played at least 30 minutes 15 times this season, including in six of the last seven games, a stretch in which he is averaging 12.3 points while shooting 40 percent (14-of-35) from 3-point land.

“I never stopped working, never stopped pushing,” Nesmith said, “And to see it finally start to pay off—I wish it would have paid off the other five years, too, but I can’t do anything about it now.”

Nesmith, who drained the dramatic game-winning shot ju9st before the buzzer to beat Stony Brook in the battle for Long Island on Nov. 21, was also the player Mihalich entrusted with the ball in the final seconds Sunday. With the Dutchmen down two against William & Mary, Nesmith dribbled up the left side of the court before colliding with Terry Tarpey and uncorking an errant shot as time expired in an 80-78 loss.

“I’m going to be honest with you,” Mihalich said. “We didn’t look at him and say ‘Oh my gosh, he’s going to be all-conference, he’s going to play 35 minutes a game and he’s going to be out best guard.’ We didn’t do that. We just knew he could be a piece of the puzzle and he could really help us.

“And then he turned out to be pretty good and I thin he just kept getting better. Speaks to his character. He is a high-character, total package guy.”

Mihalich likes to say that everyone will someday be working for Nesmith, who hopes to put his analytics degree to use in the sports field.

“He’ll end up being a CEO somewhere,” Mihalich said. “He’s going to be great at it.”

But before he occupies the corner office, Nesmith has a few more games to play—a few more opportunities to remind the powers that be that they might have delayed his dream of playing college basketball, but they couldn’t stop him from achieving it.

“I was definitely surprised that it worked out and happy that it worked out, because I got another year to play basketball and got another year to help me finish my degree,” Nesmith said. “It has just been tremendous, with the ups and downs at the beginning and to see stuff finally go my way towards the end. It’s a blessing.”

Sunday, February 22, 2015

Of parity with (long-ago) precedent, and one-hit wonders

Extreme parity in a college basketball conference is a lot like extreme weather. An extended bone-chilling cold snap—or sweaty heat wave—is not unprecedented, even though it is rare enough to warrant both hyperbolic reaction and the belief it’s never happened before.

So it’s fair for me, and anyone else my age or even a little bit older, to believe the inclusion of the Flying Dutchmen in a frantic five-way race for the CAA men’s basketball regular season title has never happened before.

A gritty 87-82 win over Towson Wednesday night improved the Dutchmen to 9-6 in CAA play and, coupled with complete chaos throughout the rest of the league pulled them within one game of the four teams tied for first place: William & Mary, Northeastern, UNC Wilmington and James Madison. The Dutchmen will try to loosen that logjam while remaining a game out of first today, when they host William & Mary.

It is not unprecedented for Hofstra to be involved in such a free-for-all. But February 1990 was a long time ago.

I was a high school junior, spending most of my time “running” indoor track. I had neither a blog nor a Twitter account, but if I did, both would have been dubbed “Defiantly Dateless.” I was just following the advice of Jane Child, whose lone hit, “Don’t Wanna Fall In Love,” was climbing the charts to no. 2 and pouring out of speakers in cars driven by teenagers yet owned by their parents.

And 125 miles southwest of my hometown, the men’s basketball program for a school I hadn’t even heard of yet was involved in a wild five-way race for the regular season championship in a conference I may or may not have invented in my mind.

There were subtle differences in the then vs. now comparison: With three games remaining in the 1989-90 East Coast Conference season, there were four teams tied for second, and chasing a lone first-place team, instead of vice versa. The ECC had just eight teams and played only 14 regular season games, instead of the 10-team, 18-game alignment possessed by the CAA.

But like now, Hofstra was doing the chasing. The second team of Butch van Breda Kolff’s second tenure was among the quartet of 6-5 teams chasing Lehigh. Really. This happened.

1989-90 ECC standings through 11 games
Lehigh 7-4
Towson State 6-5
Delaware 6-5
Lafayette 6-5
Drexel 5-6
Rider 5-6
Bucknell 4-7

Four CAA schools, three Patriot schools and a MAAC school walk into a bar…

Technically, the ECC in 1989-90 was even wilder than the CAA is now. Without looking at the remaining schedules for every team—what do you think I am, crazy?—it appears as if all eight schools still had a shot at a share of the regular season title while seven were in the running to win it outright.

But what we have now is pretty spectacular. Every November and December, we opine that the current season is wildly unpredictable and anyone can win. But it never happens that way. Someone or someones—usually a UNC Wilmington, a VCU, an Old Dominion or a George Mason—break away from the pack and make the tournament a miracle-or-bust affair for the rest of us.

Since Hofstra joined the North Atlantic Conference in 1994, only four times—in 1997-98, 1998-99, 2005-06 and 2008-09—have the top four teams in the Dutchmen’s conference finished a season separated by two games or less.

The closest race the Dutchmen have been a part of took place during the 1997-98 season, when 12-6 Delaware and Boston University finished a game ahead of Hofstra, Hartford and Vermont and two ahead.

But Delaware had a two-game lead entering the 15th game of the ’97-98 season. And in each of the other three close race seasons, first and fourth place were already separated by at least two games with three league games to go.

1997-98 America East standings through 15 games
1.) Delaware 11-4
2.) HOFSTRA 9-6
2.) Boston U. 9-6
2.) Vermont 9-6
5.) Hartford 8-7
6.) Drexel 7-8

1998-99 America East standings through 15 games
1.) Drexel 13-2
2.) Delaware 12-3
3.) HOFSTRA 11-4
3.) Maine 11-4

2005-06 CAA standings through 15 games
1.) George Mason 13-2
2.) UNCW 12-3
3.) HOFSTRA 11-4
3.) Old Dominion 11-4

2006-07 CAA standings through 15 games
1.) VCU 13-2
2.) HOFSTRA 12-3
2.) Old Dominion 12-3
4.) Drexel 11-4

2008-09 CAA standings through 15 games
1.) VCU 11-4
1.) Northeastern 11-4
3.) George Mason 10-5
4.) Old Dominion 9-6

If we can’t have the best-case scenario (Hofstra in first place with three games to play, which has not happened in the CAA era) then this (the Dutchmen one game back with three to go for just the second time in the CAA) is a pretty good alternative.

The stars have aligned—or, more accurately, realigned thanks to the departures of the perpetually excellent VCU, Old Dominion and George Mason—and created a chaotic race which generates in us the type of fresh-faced, wide-eyed, anything goes optimism that isn’t just the loyal Hofstra faithful trying to delude itself into believing the impossible. Isn’t it awesome, especially given how frustrated we were just a couple weeks ago?

It is easy, as with a spell of bad weather, to say this is the new normal. The state of the CAA would seem to present plenty of opportunities for topsy-turvy races moving forward. But let’s remember that the ECC was on its way to being dismantled in 1990, and that the back-to-back close races in the America East in the late ‘90s were followed by the CAA poaching the best of the America East.

So what we have today—the Dutchmen playing a first-place team with a chance to remain a game out of first and keep alive their hopes of finishing first—is a rare gift. It might not take 25 years to experience it again, but you’d better cherish it anyway, just in case this parity turns out to be Jane Child.

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

An idiot's dream (part one?)

Because sports is life, the great unexpected joy of the Flying Dutchmen throttling Drexel for the second time this season Sunday afternoon (sorry, Crain) was immediately followed by abject disappointment: Despite my previous hopes and beliefs, the win by the Dutchmen didn’t make a six-way tie for first place AT 12-6 in the CAA possible.

Though there are six teams with between four and six losses, only five can finish 12-6 because James Madison, which is 9-5, plays the 8-6 Dutchmen and Drexel. WHY GOD WHY CAN’T WE HAVE NICE THINGS?

However, life has taught me to bounce back from soul-crushing misery, I promptly got back on the horse #Cliche and wasted little time figuring out THERE COULD STILL BE A SIX-WAY TIE AT 11-7! VICTORY!

And because I’m not quite right in the head—seriously, I love nothing more than coming up with the playoff tiebreakers for our fantasy football league every December—I also devised a potential five-way tie for first place at 12-6, as well as a four-way tie for first at 12-6. All machinations involve Hofstra finishing 12-6. Hey, don’t like it, start your own sporadically updated blog.

Alas, all these machinations also involve Hofstra not winning the no. 1 seed. That head-to-head sweep at the hands of Northeastern is going to be tough to overcome.

Without further ado, here are the remaining schedules for the top six teams, as well as the three scenarios I figured out. Please read this soon, as merely posting it ensures Hofstra will lose tonight and render all of these implausible scenarios downright impossible. (And if the Dutchmen beat Towson, tune back in for scenarios in which I devise a way for Hofstra to finish with the no. 1 seed)

1.) William & Mary 10-4 (@NU, @HU, Tow, Drex, .536 winning %)
2.) UNC Wilmington 10-4 (@UDee, @Tow, JMU, @Elon, .411 winning %)
3.) Northeastern 9-5 (W&M, Drex, @Elon, @CofC, .411 winning %)
4.) James Madison 9-5 (Drex, CofC, @UNCW, Hof, .500 winning %)
5.) Hofstra 8-6 (@Tow, W&M, CofC, @JMU, .464 winning %)
6.) Drexel 8-6 (@JMU, @NU, UDee, @W&M, .607 winning %)

1.) William & Mary (1-3 in last four, Ls to NU, HU & Drex)
2.) Northeastern (2-2 in last four, Ls to Elon & CofC)
3.) Hofstra (3-1 in last four, L to JMU) 4-2
4.) UNCW (1-3 in last four, Ls to UDee, JMU & Elon) 3-3
4.) Drexel (3-1 in last four, L to UDee) 2-4
5.) James Madison (2-2 in last four, L to Drex & UNCW) 2-4

William & Mary is the no. 1 seed by virtue of its 7-3 record against the other five 11-7 teams. Northeastern is the no. 2 seed by virtue of its 6-4 record against the 11-7 teams. The remaining four teams, in this scenario, are all 5-5 against the other five 11-7 teams, but Hofstra is the no. 3 seed by virtue of going 4-2 against Drexel, UNCW and James Madison. UNCW is no. 4 by virtue of going 3-3 against Hofstra, Drexel and James Madison. Drexel and James Madison each would go be 2-4 against the other three 11-7 teams, but Drexel would be the no. 5 seed because in this scenario the Dragons would go 1-1 against William & Mary while James Madison has gone 0-2.

1.) William & Mary (2-2 in last four, Ls to NU & HU)
2.) Northeastern (3-1 in last four, L to Elon)
3.) UNCW (2-2 in last four, Ls to JMU & UDee)
4.) Hofstra (4-0 in last four)
5.) James Madison (3-1 in last four, L to HU)

This would be the easiest one to figure out. William & Mary is the no. 1 seed by virtue of its 6-2 record against the other four 12-6 teams. Northeastern is no. 2 by virtue of its 5-3 record. UNCW is no. 3 by virtue of its 4-4 record. Hofstra is no. 4 by virtue of its 3-5 record. James Madison is no. 5 by virtue of its 2-6 record.

1.) William & Mary 
2.) Hofstra
3.) UNCW
4.) Drexel

Ohhhh Hofstra came so close to winning the no. 1 seed here. In this four-way tie scenario, Hofstra and William & Mary would emerge with 4-2 records against the other three 12-6 teams, while Drexel and UNCW would be 2-4 against the other 12-6 squads. However, UNCW would draw the no. 3 seed by virtue of its sweep of Drexel, and William & Mary would then get the no. 1 seed because it swept UNCW while the Dutchmen split with the Seahawks. I think? 

Thursday, February 12, 2015

Can’t afford to let it pass

Can't go with Extreme the night of Billy Joel-Extreme.

Tonight is the biggest February home basketball game the Flying Dutchmen have played in at least six years and two days, which says more for the recently downtrodden state of the Hofstra program and the disheveled nature of the CAA circa 2014-15 than it does the scope of the game.

Barone Bowl XIII isn’t even the big deal that the CAA thought it might be a few months ago, when it placed Hofstra-Northeastern on a Thursday night so that it could air on NBC Sports Network. Northeastern was picked to finish first in the preseason poll and the Dutchmen were tabbed third, but tonight’s stakes are decidedly less imposing: The Huskies are just trying to move into a two-way tie for second place with UNC Wilmington, which was picked to finish last in the preseason poll, while the Dutchmen are trying to create a four-way tie for third.

This would be a bit more compelling if there were first-round byes in the CAA Tournament at stake, as was the case when the Dutchmen put together an impressive collective effort in beating Old Dominion on Feb. 10, 2009.

But the league has dwindled from 12 teams to 10, which means the top six teams get byes instead of just the top four. Even with a loss tonight, the Dutchmen would be 7-6 and two games up on seventh-place Delaware with the tiebreaker (head-to-head sweep) in hand and three games ahead of eighth-place Towson, albeit with a head-to-head loss to the Tigers to overcome.

But let’s not look CAA contention and a nationally televised game in the mouth. I mean, our lords and saviors Cablevision didn’t even carry ESPNU in February 2009, which meant you had to be at Hofstra to actually see the game. Our lords and saviors have blessed us with NBC Sports Network, so it feels like we’re ACTUALLY gonna be on TV tonight. Which is good, since I’ll be across the street at the Coliseum and will have to watch it on tape delay (odds nobody spoils it for me?).

Plus, if it’s a big enough game for Charles Jenkins and Matt Janning to engage in a Twitter avatar bet, isn’t it big enough for us?

Potential statement games come in all shapes and sizes, and this is one for both teams, even if it is somewhat oblong and shrunken. The Dutchmen need a win tonight—not a well-played loss, a win—in order to prove last week’s bounce back from the most embarrassing losing streak of the Defiantly Dutch era was legitimate and not a product of beating Delaware and ninth-place Elon.

“This is our second game in February and second game that turned out the way we like it to,” Joe Mihalich said following Saturday’s 80-69 win over Elon. “So it’s a good time to be feeling good about yourself.

“They got it back, they found themselves. We kind of lost our way, but I think we found our way back.”

That remains to be seen, even if there is a lot to be said for winning the games you should win during a season in which first-place William & Mary’s three league losses have come against Delaware, Elon and last-place Charleston. Ask Northeastern, which is trying to reassert itself after Saturday’s stunning home loss to Delaware.

But in order to make a run in Baltimore, the Dutchmen will have to beat the better teams, too. Hofstra is 2-4 against the six CAA squads with winning league records, and one of those wins came against Drexel before the Dragons navigated their way out of the iceberg and became the hottest team on the planet.

It’ll be a lot easier to believe in the possibility of a magical March if the Dutchmen can beat Northeastern, which shot about 500,000% in a 91-83 win in Boston on Jan. 14. The awful defense that began cropping up against the Huskies and was a hallmark of the Dutchmen’s recent skid was better against Delaware and Elon, but still nowhere near good enough to win three games in three days. The Blue Hens and Phoenix each averaged more than 0.90 points per possession, which is the highest rate surrendered by the Dutchmen in a league win this season.

Perhaps a home crowd emboldened by free white T-shirts will generate some momentum for the Dutchmen, allow them to come out tonight like the 2008-09 team did against Old Dominion and never let up after throwing the first punch (maybe with Malik Nichols playing the role of Darren Townes?).

It is more likely, though, that an equally desperate Northeastern squad is going to respond with a flurry of its own, probably by pouring the ball inside with its three-headed monster of Quincy Ford, David Walker and Scott Eatherton. In that case, The Dutchmen will need to prove the inconsistent resiliency of January was the aberration, and not the norm, and they’ll largely need to do so by relying on strong and efficient games on both ends of the floor from big men Moussa Kone and Rokas Gustys.

Kone and Gustys seem to begin most games with two fouls apiece, but they were very good on Saturday against Elon, when the duo combined for 16 points (on 8-of-11 shooting), 11 rebounds and three blocks. Throw some Ameen Tanksley at power forward in there and the Dutchmen have a shot at minimizing Northeastern’s inside game.

“Truth be told, we probably don’t get that ball to Moussa enough down there and (to) Rokas enough down there,” Mihalich said Saturday. “We probably don’t post up Ameen enough down there. We’re always trying to think of ways to do some better things. I feel like there’s still a lot of things we can do better.”

The Dutchmen need to keep doing better things tonight, especially given the road trip that awaits. After visiting Drexel on Sunday, the Dutchmen head for a lousy matchup Wednesday at Towson. A loss tonight and it’s not inconceivable Hofstra is under .500 and actually fighting to avoid the Friday play-in games when it returns home to host William & Mary on Feb. 22.

But a win tonight and the long-shot regular season championship hopes stay alive, as does the possibility of gaining some revenge on William & Mary for putting up triple digits in Williamsburg during the January funk.

“We had 21 days of basketball that wasn’t great—not three months, 21 days,” Mihalich said. “We were pretty good 21 days ago, I think everybody took a deep breath, got our composure back, we got our poise back and we got that bounce in our step back.”

Tonight we find out if it’s legitimate.